Changing Circumstances
9.1 In the past 10 years (1988-98), Hong Kong has experienced rapid growth in population (1.8% pa), GDP per capita (1.9% pa in real terms) and private vehicle fleet (6.9% pa). Over the last year GDP growth has been slower, even became negative, and it is not clear how soon rapid growth may be resumed. In the face of these uncertainties, CTS-3 has adopted a range of assumptions for the major causal variables documented earlier in this report.
9.2 It is not clear where in the envelope of assumptions Hong Kong's future may lie, but CTS-3 has endeavoured to consider a reasonably wide range to cover almost any foreseeable circumstance. The infrastructure plans identified, together with modifications resulting from subsequent review, should therefore cover all possible scenarios. In any case the infrastructure development plans are essentially fixed for the next few years, and a robust framework which is adaptive to future events is recommended. If rapid growth does recur in the near future, the Government, and the people of Hong Kong, will have the choice between introducing further restraint on vehicle fleets or usage, or building more infrastructure to handle the flows. The latter course may have adverse environmental impacts unless further improvements in emission control or fuel technology can be identified and implemented. It should be noted that if high growth occurs, the projects identified will be sufficient for strategic movements, but there would still be congestion in some urban areas. To handle this problem, the infrastructure recommended may need to be complemented by demand management measures.
Summary of Recommendations
9.3 Infrastructure Development - Infrastructure programmes were developed for low, medium and high travel demand growth scenarios. These sets of infrastructure improvements will meet the mobility objectives for passenger and goods movements on strategic routes. In most major corridors travel speeds will improve (from 1997 conditions). Recommendations include future expansion of rail projects in corridors of high passenger demand and road projects which were beneficial to:
| (a) | further remove through traffic from local streets in heavily urbanised areas; |
| (b) | provide high capacity links between rapidly developing areas in the New Territories and concentrations of development in Kowloon and Hong Kong Island; and |
| (c) | serve anticipated growth in cross boundary movements. |
In terms of patronage, railways, which will form the backbone of the passenger transport system, are forecast to handle about 40% to 50% of the total public transport passenger boardings by 2016, increasing from 33% in 1997.
9.4 Public Transport Co-ordination - Current projects and recommended expansion of the passenger rail system will encourage use of public transport. To supplement these major infrastructure investments and enhance their potential effectiveness for reducing road traffic it is recommended that:
| (a) | additional major public transport interchanges and related feeder bus services be provided to encourage use of the system and reduce duplication of services; |
| (b) | the opportunities for Park and Ride facilities to encourage rail use should continue to be explored; |
| (c) | existing hierarchy of the various public transport modes should be maintained; |
| (d) | quality of bus services should continue to improve by expanding the air-conditioned bus fleet; |
| (e) | existing fare collection integration schemes be expanded to cover all major public transport services; and |
| (f) | passenger information systems be provided to better inform public transport users of their travel alternatives. |
9.5 Use of New Technologies - Opportunities exist for enhancing the performance of Hong Kong's transport infrastructure. Further studies are recommended to pursue them vigorously:
| (a) | Real time systems to provide information to road and public transport system users that will allow them to make better informed and, therefore, more intelligent transport decisions; |
| (b) | The use of Electronic Road Pricing and/or revised tolling strategies on cross harbour and other major road links (supplemented by automatic toll collection techniques). The objective is to balance demand across available parallel links or by time of day thereby making more effective use of existing infrastructure (and reducing the need for new infrastructure); and |
| (c) | The application of Intelligent Transport System and the expanded use of Area Traffic Control to better monitor and manage system operation. |
Actions Required
9.6 The Consultants recommend that the following actions should be taken:
| (a) | Continue the current infrastructure programme, with emphasis on the priority rail projects. |
| (b) | Develop a review system to ensure that the need, timing, scope and priorities of the relevant highway projects are re-assessed before implementation in light of the latest development. |
| (c) | Pursue planning for further infrastructure rapidly via feasibility and preliminary design studies, so that projects may be advanced if shown necessary in subsequent review. This must include close co-ordination with reclamation and other land-use programmes. |
| (d) | Strengthen the integrated planning of land-use development, transport infrastructure and policies, and environment to help reduce the need for travel in future major transport related studies. The next rounds of Territorial Development Strategy Review and Freight Transport Study should have this principle at their heart. |
| (e) | Strengthen existing planning guidelines to further explore development opportunities along major transport corridors and to intensify developments (e.g. by increasing plot ratio) around rail stations and public transport interchanges. Movements of commercial vehicles should also be planned to avoid concentrating traffic flows to some districts. |
| (f) | Strengthen existing planning guidelines to develop the concept of planning around pedestrians in new areas and redevelopments. Actively enhance the pedestrian mode in developed areas by pursuing pedestrianisation, pedestrian links and walkways through district studies. |
| (g) | Plan for high standard integrated public transport interchanges based around the mass carriers, to include feeder services, good pedestrian access, park and ride facilities where appropriate, and computerised passenger information systems. |
| (h) | Use new technologies to enhance the effectiveness of the transport system and to make it more user friendly. |
| (i) | Closely monitor and plan for cross boundary traffic. |
| (j) | Maintain, and where possible, improve environmental qualities in planning new infrastructure/traffic management schemes. |
| (k) | Follow up the environmental improvement measures identified and recommended by CTS-3 under their respective areas in the transport planning context, and those identified as possible environmental measures which might be considered to further improve the air quality and noise environment. |
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